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A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870-2010): filtering, spurious cycles and unobserved component modelling.
Identificadores del recurso
1863-2505
http://hdl.handle.net/10641/1188
Procedencia
(Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Francisco de Vitoria)

Ficha

Título:
A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870-2010): filtering, spurious cycles and unobserved component modelling.
Tema:
Historical business cycles
Spectral analysis
Unobserved component models
Maddison’s time series
Descripción:
Time series filtering methods such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, with a consensual choice of the smoothing parameter, eliminate the possibility of identifying long swing cycles (e.g., Kondratieff type) or, alternatively, may distort periodicities that are in fact present in the data, giving rise, for example, to spurious Kuznets-type cycles. In this paper, we propose filtering Maddison’s time series for the period 1870–2010 for a selection of developed countries using a less restrictive filtering technique that does not impose but instead estimates the cutoff frequency. In particular, we use unobserved component models that optimally estimate the smoothing parameter. Using this methodology, we identify cycles of periods, primarily in the range of 4–7 years (Juglar-type cycles), and a number of patterns of cyclical convergence. We analyze the historical processes underlying this last empirical finding: Peacetime periods, monetary arrangements, trade and investment flows, and industrial boosts are confluent forces driving the economic dynamism. After 1950, we observe a common business cycle factor that groups all economies, which is consistent with the consolidation of the so-called second globalization.
pre-print
758 KB
Idioma:
English
Autor/Productor:
Cendejas Bueno, José Luis
Fernando Muñoz, Félix
Fernández de Pinedo, Nadia
Editor:
Cliometrica. Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History
Derechos:
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
openAccess
Fecha:
2016-06-14T10:38:55Z
2015
Tipo de recurso:
article

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