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100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world

Identificadores del recurso

Current Biology, 33(1): 109-121 (2023)

09609822

http://hdl.handle.net/11093/5008

10.1016/j.cub.2022.11.056

https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0960982222018474

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Title:: 100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world
Tema:: 2416.01 Paleontología Animal
Description:: Past responses to environmental change provide vital baseline data for estimating the potential resilience of extant taxa to future change. Here, we investigate the latitudinal range contraction that terrestrial and freshwater turtles (Testudinata) experienced from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene (100.5–23.03 mya) in response to major climatic changes. We apply ecological niche modeling (ENM) to reconstruct turtle niches, using ancient and modern distribution data, paleogeographic reconstructions, and the HadCM3L climate model to quantify their range shifts in the Cretaceous and late Eocene. We then use the insights provided by these models to infer their probable ecological responses to future climate scenarios at different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2100), which project globally increased temperatures and spreading arid biomes at lower to mid-latitudes. We show that turtle ranges are predicted to expand poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, with decreased habitat suitability at lower latitudes, inverting a trend of latitudinal range contraction that has been prevalent since the Eocene. Trionychids and freshwater turtles can more easily track their niches than Testudinidae and other terrestrial groups. However, habitat destruction and fragmentation at higher latitudes will probably reduce the capability of turtles and tortoises to cope with future climate changes.; Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. FJC2020-044836-I; European Commission | Ref. H2020, n. 947921; NERC | Ref. NE/J020389/1
Idioma:: English
Relation:: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/FJC2020-044836-I/ES; info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EU/H2020/947921
Autor/Productor:: Chiarenza , Alfio; Waterson, Amy M.; Schmidt, Daniela N.; Valdes, Paul J.; Yesson, Chris; Holroyd, Patricia A.; Collinson, Margaret E.; Farnsworth, Alexander; Nicholson, David B.; Varela Gonzalez, Sara; Barrett, Paul M.
Publisher:: Current Biology; Ecoloxía e bioloxía animal; Ecoloxía Animal
Rights:: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/; openAccess
Date:: 2023-07-07T10:30:46Z; 2023-01-09; 2023-07-04T08:11:51Z
Tipo de recurso:: article

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