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A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870-2010): filtering, spurious cycles and unobserved component modelling.

Identificadores del recurso

1863-2505

http://hdl.handle.net/10641/1188

Procedència

(Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad Francisco de Vitoria)

Fitxa

Títol:: A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870-2010): filtering, spurious cycles and unobserved component modelling.
Tema:: Historical business cycles; Spectral analysis; Unobserved component models; Maddison’s time series
Descripció:: Time series filtering methods such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, with a consensual choice of the smoothing parameter, eliminate the possibility of identifying long swing cycles (e.g., Kondratieff type) or, alternatively, may distort periodicities that are in fact present in the data, giving rise, for example, to spurious Kuznets-type cycles. In this paper, we propose filtering Maddison’s time series for the period 1870–2010 for a selection of developed countries using a less restrictive filtering technique that does not impose but instead estimates the cutoff frequency. In particular, we use unobserved component models that optimally estimate the smoothing parameter. Using this methodology, we identify cycles of periods, primarily in the range of 4–7 years (Juglar-type cycles), and a number of patterns of cyclical convergence. We analyze the historical processes underlying this last empirical finding: Peacetime periods, monetary arrangements, trade and investment flows, and industrial boosts are confluent forces driving the economic dynamism. After 1950, we observe a common business cycle factor that groups all economies, which is consistent with the consolidation of the so-called second globalization.; pre-print; 758 KB
Idioma:: English
Autor/Productor:: Cendejas Bueno, José Luis; Fernando Muñoz, Félix; Fernández de Pinedo, Nadia
Editor:: Cliometrica. Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History
Drets:: Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España; http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/; openAccess
Data:: 2016-06-14T10:38:55Z; 2015
Tipo de recurso:: article

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        <field name="authority">41</field>
        <field name="confidence">500</field>
        <field name="value">Fernando Muñoz, Félix</field>
        <field name="authority">16175017-783f-4c25-b2a1-204f382d9cee</field>
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        <field name="value">Fernández de Pinedo, Nadia</field>
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        <field name="value">Time series filtering methods such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, with a consensual choice of the smoothing parameter, eliminate the possibility of identifying long swing cycles (e.g., Kondratieff type) or, alternatively, may distort periodicities that are in fact present in the data, giving rise, for example, to spurious Kuznets-type cycles. In this paper, we propose filtering Maddison’s time series for the period 1870–2010 for a selection of developed countries using a less restrictive filtering technique that does not impose but instead estimates the cutoff frequency. In particular, we use unobserved component models that optimally estimate the smoothing parameter. Using this methodology, we identify cycles of periods, primarily in the range of 4–7 years (Juglar-type cycles), and a number of patterns of cyclical convergence. We analyze the historical processes underlying this last empirical finding: Peacetime periods, monetary arrangements, trade and investment flows, and industrial boosts are confluent forces driving the economic dynamism. After 1950, we observe a common business cycle factor that groups all economies, which is consistent with the consolidation of the so-called second globalization.</field>
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